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Simulation-based Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Empirical and Robust Hazard Predictions

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Original languageEnglish
Number of pages24
JournalPure and Applied Geophysics
Early online date13 Jun 2017
DOIs
StateE-pub ahead of print - 13 Jun 2017

Abstract

Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is the prerequisite for rigorous risk assessment and thus for decision-making regarding risk mitigation strategies. This paper proposes a new simulation-based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment for a specific site of an engineering project along the coast, or, more broadly, for a wider tsunami-prone region. The methodology incorporates numerous uncertain parameters that are related to geophysical processes by adopting new scaling relationships for tsunamigenic seismic regions. Through the proposed methodology it is possible to obtain either a tsunami hazard curve for a single location, that is the representation of a tsunami intensity measure (such as inundation depth) versus its mean annual rate of occurrence, or tsunami hazard maps, representing the expected tsunami intensity measures within a geographical area, for a specific probability of occurrence in a given time window. In addition to the conventional tsunami hazard curve that is based on an empirical statistical representation of the simulation-based PTHA results, this study presents a robust tsunami hazard curve, which is based on a Bayesian fitting methodology. The robust approach allows a significant reduction of the number of simulations and, therefore, a reduction of the computational effort. Both methods produce a central estimate of the hazard as well as a confidence interval, facilitating the rigorous quantification of the hazard uncertainties.

    Research areas

  • Megathrust earthquakes, tsunai hazard curves and maps, Bayesian model selection

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    Rights statement: This is the final published version of the article (version of record). It first appeared online via Springer at https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1588-9. Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher.

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