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Dynamic density forecasts for multivariate asset returns

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)523 - 540
Number of pages18
JournalJournal of Forecasting
Volume30
Issue number6
DOIs
DatePublished - Sep 2011

Abstract

We propose a simple and flexible framework for forecasting the joint density of asset returns. The multinormal distribution is augmented with a polynomial in (time-varying) non-central co-moments of assets. We estimate the coefficients of the polynomial via the method of moments for a carefully selected set of co-moments. In an extensive empirical study, we compare the proposed model with a range of other models widely used in the literature. Employing a recently proposed as well as standard techniques to evaluate multivariate forecasts, we conclude that the augmented joint density provides highly accurate forecasts of the ‘negative tail’ of the joint distribution.

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