Skip to content

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 2: Different natural hazard areas

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Standard

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 2 : Different natural hazard areas. / Beven, Keith; Almeida, Susana M; Aspinall, Willy; Bates, Paul; Blazkova, S; Borgomeo, E; Goda, Katsu; Phillips, Jeremy; Simpson, M; Smith, P.; Stephenson, David; Wagener, Thorsten; Watson, Matthew; Wilkins, Kate.

In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 18, No. 10, 10.2018, p. 2769-2783.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Beven, K, Almeida, SM, Aspinall, W, Bates, P, Blazkova, S, Borgomeo, E, Goda, K, Phillips, J, Simpson, M, Smith, P, Stephenson, D, Wagener, T, Watson, M & Wilkins, K 2018, 'Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 2: Different natural hazard areas', Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, vol. 18, no. 10, pp. 2769-2783. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018

APA

Beven, K., Almeida, S. M., Aspinall, W., Bates, P., Blazkova, S., Borgomeo, E., ... Wilkins, K. (2018). Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 2: Different natural hazard areas. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18(10), 2769-2783. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018

Vancouver

Beven K, Almeida SM, Aspinall W, Bates P, Blazkova S, Borgomeo E et al. Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 2: Different natural hazard areas. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 2018 Oct;18(10):2769-2783. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018

Author

Beven, Keith ; Almeida, Susana M ; Aspinall, Willy ; Bates, Paul ; Blazkova, S ; Borgomeo, E ; Goda, Katsu ; Phillips, Jeremy ; Simpson, M ; Smith, P. ; Stephenson, David ; Wagener, Thorsten ; Watson, Matthew ; Wilkins, Kate. / Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 2 : Different natural hazard areas. In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 2018 ; Vol. 18, No. 10. pp. 2769-2783.

Bibtex

@article{5edc7c519ad94facbc0e16877eecf1d5,
title = "Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 2: Different natural hazard areas",
abstract = "This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. In each case it is common practice to treat most uncertainties in the form of aleatory probability distributions but this may lead to an underestimation of the resulting uncertainties in assessing the hazard, consequences and risk. It is suggested that such analyses might be usefully extended by looking at different scenarios of assumptions about sources of epistemic uncertainty, with a view to reducing the element of surprise in future hazard occurrences. Since every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of epistemic uncertainty it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in the companion Part 1 by setting out those assumptions in a condition tree.",
author = "Keith Beven and Almeida, {Susana M} and Willy Aspinall and Paul Bates and S Blazkova and E Borgomeo and Katsu Goda and Jeremy Phillips and M Simpson and P. Smith and David Stephenson and Thorsten Wagener and Matthew Watson and Kate Wilkins",
year = "2018",
month = "10",
doi = "10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018",
language = "English",
volume = "18",
pages = "2769--2783",
journal = "Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences",
issn = "1561-8633",
publisher = "Copernicus GmbH",
number = "10",

}

RIS - suitable for import to EndNote

TY - JOUR

T1 - Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment - Part 2

T2 - Different natural hazard areas

AU - Beven, Keith

AU - Almeida, Susana M

AU - Aspinall, Willy

AU - Bates, Paul

AU - Blazkova, S

AU - Borgomeo, E

AU - Goda, Katsu

AU - Phillips, Jeremy

AU - Simpson, M

AU - Smith, P.

AU - Stephenson, David

AU - Wagener, Thorsten

AU - Watson, Matthew

AU - Wilkins, Kate

PY - 2018/10

Y1 - 2018/10

N2 - This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. In each case it is common practice to treat most uncertainties in the form of aleatory probability distributions but this may lead to an underestimation of the resulting uncertainties in assessing the hazard, consequences and risk. It is suggested that such analyses might be usefully extended by looking at different scenarios of assumptions about sources of epistemic uncertainty, with a view to reducing the element of surprise in future hazard occurrences. Since every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of epistemic uncertainty it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in the companion Part 1 by setting out those assumptions in a condition tree.

AB - This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. In each case it is common practice to treat most uncertainties in the form of aleatory probability distributions but this may lead to an underestimation of the resulting uncertainties in assessing the hazard, consequences and risk. It is suggested that such analyses might be usefully extended by looking at different scenarios of assumptions about sources of epistemic uncertainty, with a view to reducing the element of surprise in future hazard occurrences. Since every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of epistemic uncertainty it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in the companion Part 1 by setting out those assumptions in a condition tree.

UR - https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci-discuss.net/nhess-2015-295/

U2 - 10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018

DO - 10.5194/nhess-18-2769-2018

M3 - Article

VL - 18

SP - 2769

EP - 2783

JO - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

JF - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

SN - 1561-8633

IS - 10

ER -