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Monitoring the hepatitis C epidemic in England and evaluating intervention scale-up using routinely collected data

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Monitoring the hepatitis C epidemic in England and evaluating intervention scale-up using routinely collected data. / Harris, Ross J; Harris, Helen; Mandal, Sema; Ramsay, Mary; Vickerman, Peter; Hickman, Matthew; De Angelis, Daniela .

In: Journal of Viral Hepatitis, Vol. 26, No. 5, 01.05.2019, p. 541-551.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Harris, RJ, Harris, H, Mandal, S, Ramsay, M, Vickerman, P, Hickman, M & De Angelis, D 2019, 'Monitoring the hepatitis C epidemic in England and evaluating intervention scale-up using routinely collected data', Journal of Viral Hepatitis, vol. 26, no. 5, pp. 541-551. https://doi.org/10.1111/jvh.13063

APA

Harris, R. J., Harris, H., Mandal, S., Ramsay, M., Vickerman, P., Hickman, M., & De Angelis, D. (2019). Monitoring the hepatitis C epidemic in England and evaluating intervention scale-up using routinely collected data. Journal of Viral Hepatitis, 26(5), 541-551. https://doi.org/10.1111/jvh.13063

Vancouver

Author

Harris, Ross J ; Harris, Helen ; Mandal, Sema ; Ramsay, Mary ; Vickerman, Peter ; Hickman, Matthew ; De Angelis, Daniela . / Monitoring the hepatitis C epidemic in England and evaluating intervention scale-up using routinely collected data. In: Journal of Viral Hepatitis. 2019 ; Vol. 26, No. 5. pp. 541-551.

Bibtex

@article{9b6a8b92bb2949dcac3d0e84510385d3,
title = "Monitoring the hepatitis C epidemic in England and evaluating intervention scale-up using routinely collected data",
abstract = "In England, 160,000 individuals were estimated to be chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) in 2005 and the burden of severe HCV-related liver disease has increased steadily for the past 15 years. Direct-acting antiviral treatments can clear infection in most patients, motivating HCV elimination targets. However, the current burden of HCV is unknown and new methods are required to monitor progress. We employ a Bayesian back-calculation approach, combining data on severe HCV-related liver disease and disease progression, to reconstruct historical HCV incidence and estimate current prevalence in England. We explicitly model infections occurring in people who inject drugs, the key risk group, allowing information on the size of this population and surveillance data on HCV prevalence to inform recent incidence. We estimate 143,000 chronic infections in 2015 (95{\%} credible interval 123,000-161,000), with 34{\%} and 54{\%} in those with recent and past injecting drug use respectively. Following the planned scale-up of new treatments, chronic infections are predicted to fall to 113,400 (94,900-132,400) by the end of 2018 and to 89,500 (71,300-108,600) by the end of 2020. Numbers developing severe HCV-related liver disease are predicted to fall by at least 24{\%} from 2015 to 2020. We describe a coherent framework to monitor progress using routinely-collected data, which can be extended to incorporate additional data sources. Planned treatment scale-up is likely to achieve 2020 WHO targets for HCV morbidity, but substantial efforts will be required to ensure that HCV testing and patient engagement are sufficiently high.",
keywords = "back calculation, direct-acting antiviral treatment, disease burden, people who inject drugs, surveillance data",
author = "Harris, {Ross J} and Helen Harris and Sema Mandal and Mary Ramsay and Peter Vickerman and Matthew Hickman and {De Angelis}, Daniela",
note = "{\circledC} 2019 The Authors. Journal of Viral Hepatitis Published by John Wiley & Sons.",
year = "2019",
month = "5",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1111/jvh.13063",
language = "English",
volume = "26",
pages = "541--551",
journal = "Journal of Viral Hepatitis",
issn = "1352-0504",
publisher = "Wiley",
number = "5",

}

RIS - suitable for import to EndNote

TY - JOUR

T1 - Monitoring the hepatitis C epidemic in England and evaluating intervention scale-up using routinely collected data

AU - Harris, Ross J

AU - Harris, Helen

AU - Mandal, Sema

AU - Ramsay, Mary

AU - Vickerman, Peter

AU - Hickman, Matthew

AU - De Angelis, Daniela

N1 - © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Viral Hepatitis Published by John Wiley & Sons.

PY - 2019/5/1

Y1 - 2019/5/1

N2 - In England, 160,000 individuals were estimated to be chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) in 2005 and the burden of severe HCV-related liver disease has increased steadily for the past 15 years. Direct-acting antiviral treatments can clear infection in most patients, motivating HCV elimination targets. However, the current burden of HCV is unknown and new methods are required to monitor progress. We employ a Bayesian back-calculation approach, combining data on severe HCV-related liver disease and disease progression, to reconstruct historical HCV incidence and estimate current prevalence in England. We explicitly model infections occurring in people who inject drugs, the key risk group, allowing information on the size of this population and surveillance data on HCV prevalence to inform recent incidence. We estimate 143,000 chronic infections in 2015 (95% credible interval 123,000-161,000), with 34% and 54% in those with recent and past injecting drug use respectively. Following the planned scale-up of new treatments, chronic infections are predicted to fall to 113,400 (94,900-132,400) by the end of 2018 and to 89,500 (71,300-108,600) by the end of 2020. Numbers developing severe HCV-related liver disease are predicted to fall by at least 24% from 2015 to 2020. We describe a coherent framework to monitor progress using routinely-collected data, which can be extended to incorporate additional data sources. Planned treatment scale-up is likely to achieve 2020 WHO targets for HCV morbidity, but substantial efforts will be required to ensure that HCV testing and patient engagement are sufficiently high.

AB - In England, 160,000 individuals were estimated to be chronically infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) in 2005 and the burden of severe HCV-related liver disease has increased steadily for the past 15 years. Direct-acting antiviral treatments can clear infection in most patients, motivating HCV elimination targets. However, the current burden of HCV is unknown and new methods are required to monitor progress. We employ a Bayesian back-calculation approach, combining data on severe HCV-related liver disease and disease progression, to reconstruct historical HCV incidence and estimate current prevalence in England. We explicitly model infections occurring in people who inject drugs, the key risk group, allowing information on the size of this population and surveillance data on HCV prevalence to inform recent incidence. We estimate 143,000 chronic infections in 2015 (95% credible interval 123,000-161,000), with 34% and 54% in those with recent and past injecting drug use respectively. Following the planned scale-up of new treatments, chronic infections are predicted to fall to 113,400 (94,900-132,400) by the end of 2018 and to 89,500 (71,300-108,600) by the end of 2020. Numbers developing severe HCV-related liver disease are predicted to fall by at least 24% from 2015 to 2020. We describe a coherent framework to monitor progress using routinely-collected data, which can be extended to incorporate additional data sources. Planned treatment scale-up is likely to achieve 2020 WHO targets for HCV morbidity, but substantial efforts will be required to ensure that HCV testing and patient engagement are sufficiently high.

KW - back calculation

KW - direct-acting antiviral treatment

KW - disease burden

KW - people who inject drugs

KW - surveillance data

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85062370388&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/jvh.13063

DO - 10.1111/jvh.13063

M3 - Article

VL - 26

SP - 541

EP - 551

JO - Journal of Viral Hepatitis

JF - Journal of Viral Hepatitis

SN - 1352-0504

IS - 5

ER -