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MultiLevel Modeling of Space–Time Variations: Exploring Landslide Voting Patterns at United States Presidential Elections, 1992–2016

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)280-313
Number of pages34
JournalGeographical Analysis
Volume51
Issue number3
Early online date23 Oct 2018
DOIs
DateAccepted/In press - 24 Mar 2018
DateE-pub ahead of print - 23 Oct 2018
DatePublished (current) - 15 Jul 2019

Abstract

Much has been written about the polarization of the American electorate and its
reflection in its legislatures, but less about its spatial polarization, which Bishop has argued has taken place in parallel with the ideological and behavioral polarization. The extent of that polarization can be assessed, he argues, by identifying the number of landslide counties, those won at presidential elections by margins of 20 percentage points or more. This paper uses a multilevel modeling strategy to explore changes in the number and extent of those landslide counties over the period 1992–2016, relative to both the location of the counties and their population composition. It shows that a county’s population composition was a major determinant of whether it returned a landslide for either party’s candidate at any election—with a clear change in direction over the period for counties according to their level of affluence—but this was by no means the sole determinant. Holding constant those variations there were additional geographies that were more place- than people-specific.

    Research areas

  • United States, presidential elections, spatial polarization, landslides

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  • Full-text PDF (author accepted manuscript)

    Rights statement: This is the author accepted manuscript (AAM). The final published version (version of record) is available online via Wiley at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gean.12176 . Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher.

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