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Predicting future distributions of lanternfish, a significant ecological resource within the Southern Ocean

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  • Jennifer Freer
  • Geraint A. Tarling
  • Martin A. Collins
  • Julian Partridge
  • Martin J Genner
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages14
JournalDiversity and Distributions
Early online date16 May 2019
DOIs
DateAccepted/In press - 16 Apr 2019
DateE-pub ahead of print (current) - 16 May 2019

Abstract

Aim: Lanternfishes (Myctophidae) are one of the most abundant and ecologically important families of pelagic teleosts, yet how these species will respond to climate change is unclear, especially within polar regions. The aim of this study is to predict the impact of climate change on the distribution of Southern Ocean lanternfishes, and to relate these predicted responses to species traits.
Location: Circumpolar, 35-75° S.

Methods: We used MaxEnt ecological niche models to estimate the present and predict the future distributions of ten biomass-dominant lanternfish species throughout the region. Future conditions were simulated using eight climate models, in both stabilising (RCP 4.5) and rising (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios, for the time periods 2006-2055 and 2050-2099. Species responses were then related to species realised thermal niche (i.e. thermal tolerance range), latitudinal preference, and body size.

Results: Despite large variation between climate model simulations, all but one species are consistently predicted to undergo a poleward distribution shift. Species show contrasting projections relating to a gain or loss of suitable habitat which was best explained by their thermal niche. Overall, high latitude Antarctic species were found to have narrower thermal niches and a higher likelihood of losing habitat than sub-Antarctic species.

Main Conclusions: The direction of a species response was dependent on the interplay between physiology (thermal tolerance range) and biogeography (latitudinal preference). Antarctic species with restricted thermal niches and limited available habitat in which to disperse will be the most vulnerable group of Southern Ocean lanternfishes in the face of climate change. Predicted range shifts may alter the size structure of the myctophid community as smaller, sub-Antarctic species reach further south. This could have implications for trophic interactions and thus the wider Southern Ocean ecosystem as a whole.

    Research areas

  • climate response, Myctophidae, ocean warming, projection, Southern Ocean, ecological niche modelling, thermal tolerance, thermal niche

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    Rights statement: This is the final published version of the article (version of record). It first appeared online via Wiley at https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ddi.12934 . Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher.

    Final published version, 5 MB, PDF-document

    Licence: CC BY

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