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Predicting general election outcomes: Campaigns and changing voter knowledge at the 2017 general election in England

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Predicting general election outcomes : Campaigns and changing voter knowledge at the 2017 general election in England. / Johnston, Ron; Hartman, Todd; Pattie, Charles.

In: Quality and Quantity, Vol. 53, No. 3, 15.05.2019, p. 1369-1389.

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Johnston, Ron ; Hartman, Todd ; Pattie, Charles. / Predicting general election outcomes : Campaigns and changing voter knowledge at the 2017 general election in England. In: Quality and Quantity. 2019 ; Vol. 53, No. 3. pp. 1369-1389.

Bibtex

@article{ce9911fdf7a54ccaaf110f5c305429cb,
title = "Predicting general election outcomes: Campaigns and changing voter knowledge at the 2017 general election in England",
abstract = "There is a growing literature suggesting that the result for each constituency at British general elections can be predicted using ‘citizen forecasts’ obtained through voter surveys. This may be true for the majority of constituencies where the result at previous contests was a substantial majority for one party’s candidates: few ‘safe seats’ change hands. But is it true in the marginal constituencies, where elections are won and lost? Analysis of such ‘citizen forecast’ data for the Labour-Conservative marginal constituencies in 2017 indicates not. Although respondents were aware of the seats’ relative marginality and of general trends in party support during the campaign, they could not separate out those that were eventually lost by each party from those that were won again, even in seats where the elected party won comfortably.",
keywords = "2017, Constituencies, England, Forecasting, Marginality, Wisdom of the crowd",
author = "Ron Johnston and Todd Hartman and Charles Pattie",
year = "2019",
month = "5",
day = "15",
doi = "10.1007/s11135-018-0819-1",
language = "English",
volume = "53",
pages = "1369--1389",
journal = "Quality and Quantity",
issn = "0033-5177",
publisher = "Kluwer",
number = "3",

}

RIS - suitable for import to EndNote

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting general election outcomes

T2 - Campaigns and changing voter knowledge at the 2017 general election in England

AU - Johnston, Ron

AU - Hartman, Todd

AU - Pattie, Charles

PY - 2019/5/15

Y1 - 2019/5/15

N2 - There is a growing literature suggesting that the result for each constituency at British general elections can be predicted using ‘citizen forecasts’ obtained through voter surveys. This may be true for the majority of constituencies where the result at previous contests was a substantial majority for one party’s candidates: few ‘safe seats’ change hands. But is it true in the marginal constituencies, where elections are won and lost? Analysis of such ‘citizen forecast’ data for the Labour-Conservative marginal constituencies in 2017 indicates not. Although respondents were aware of the seats’ relative marginality and of general trends in party support during the campaign, they could not separate out those that were eventually lost by each party from those that were won again, even in seats where the elected party won comfortably.

AB - There is a growing literature suggesting that the result for each constituency at British general elections can be predicted using ‘citizen forecasts’ obtained through voter surveys. This may be true for the majority of constituencies where the result at previous contests was a substantial majority for one party’s candidates: few ‘safe seats’ change hands. But is it true in the marginal constituencies, where elections are won and lost? Analysis of such ‘citizen forecast’ data for the Labour-Conservative marginal constituencies in 2017 indicates not. Although respondents were aware of the seats’ relative marginality and of general trends in party support during the campaign, they could not separate out those that were eventually lost by each party from those that were won again, even in seats where the elected party won comfortably.

KW - 2017

KW - Constituencies

KW - England

KW - Forecasting

KW - Marginality

KW - Wisdom of the crowd

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85055743180&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s11135-018-0819-1

DO - 10.1007/s11135-018-0819-1

M3 - Article

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JO - Quality and Quantity

JF - Quality and Quantity

SN - 0033-5177

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ER -