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Probabilistic Earthquake-tsunami Hazard Assessment: The First Step Towards Resilient Coastal Communities

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationUrban Transitions Conference, Shanghai, September 2016
Subtitle of host publicationTowards a better urban future in an interconnected age
Publisher or commissioning bodyElsevier
Pages1058–1069
Number of pages12
DOIs
StatePublished - 2017
EventProcedia Engineering: Urban Transitions Conference - Shanghai, China

Publication series

NameProcedia Engineering
PublisherElsevier
Volume198
ISSN (Print)1877-7058

Conference

ConferenceProcedia Engineering: Urban Transitions Conference
CountryChina
CityShanghai
Period5/09/169/09/16

Abstract

As more population migrates to coastal regions worldwide, earthquake-triggered tsunamis pose a greater threat than ever before. Stakeholders, decision makers, and emergency managers face an urgent need for operational decision-support tools that provide robust and accurate hazard assessments, when human lives and built environment are at risk. To meet this need, this study presents a new probabilistic procedure for estimating the likelihood that seismic intensity and tsunami inundation will exceed given respective hazard levels. The novelty of the procedure is that a common physical rupture process for shaking and tsunami is explicitly taken into account. The procedure consists of generating numerous stochastic slip distributions of earthquakes with different magnitudes using scaling relationships of source parameters for subduction zones and then using a stochastic synthesis method of earthquake slip distribution. Coupled estimation of earthquake and tsunami intensity parameters is carried out by evaluating spatially correlated strong motion intensity through the adoption of ground motion prediction equations and by solving nonlinear shallow water equations for tsunami wave propagation and inundation. The main output of the proposed procedure is the earthquake-tsunami hazard curves, representing the one-to-one mapping between mean annual rate of occurrence and seismic and inundation tsunami intensity measures. Results are particularly useful for coupled multi-hazard mapping purposes. The developed framework can be further extended to probabilistic seismic and tsunami risk assessment.

    Research areas

  • Mega-thrust subduction earthquake, Tsunami, Probabilistic hazard analysis, Stochastic rupture models, Scaling relationships of earthquake source parameters

Event

Procedia Engineering: Urban Transitions Conference

Duration5 Sep 20169 Sep 2016
CityShanghai
CountryChina
Degree of recognitionInternational event

Event: Conference

Documents

Documents

  • Full-text PDF (final published version)

    Rights statement: This is the final published version of the article (version of record). It first appeared online via Elsevier at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877705817329971. Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher.

    Final published version, 2 MB, PDF-document

    License: CC BY-NC-ND

DOI

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