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Robustness despite uncertainty: Regional climate data reveal the dominant role of humans in explaining global extinctions of Late Quaternary megafauna

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)152-161
Number of pages10
Issue number2
Early online date9 Sep 2015
DateAccepted/In press - 29 Jul 2015
DateE-pub ahead of print - 9 Sep 2015
DatePublished (current) - Feb 2016


Debate over the Late Quaternary megafaunal extinctions has focussed on whether human colonisation or climatic changes were more important drivers of extinction, with few extinctions being unambiguously attributable to either. Most analyses have been geographically or taxonomically restricted and the few quantitative global analyses have been limited by coarse temporal resolution or overly simplified climate reconstructions or proxies. We present a global analysis of the causes of these extinctions which uses high-resolution climate reconstructions and explicitly investigates the sensitivity of our results to uncertainty in the palaeological record. Our results show that human colonisation was the dominant driver of megafaunal extinction across the world but that climatic factors were also important. We identify the geographic regions where future research is likely to have the most impact, with our models reliably predicting extinctions across most of the world, with the notable exception of mainland Asia where we fail to explain the apparently low rate of extinction found in in the fossil record. Our results are highly robust to uncertainties in the palaeological record, and our main conclusions are unlikely to change qualitatively following minor improvements or changes in the dates of extinctions and human colonisation.

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    Rights statement: This is the accepted author manuscript (AAM). The final published version (version of record) is available online via Wiley at DOI: 10.1111/ecog.01566. Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher.

    Accepted author manuscript, 1 MB, PDF-document


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