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The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

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The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy. / Bharamgoudar, Reshma; Sonsale, Aniket; Hodson, James; Griffiths, Ewen; Vohra, Ravinder S.; Kirkham, Amanda J.; Pasquali, Sandro; Marriott, Paul; Johnstone, Marianne; Spreadborough, Philip; Alderson, Derek; Griffiths, Ewen A.; Fenwick, Stephen; Elmasry, Mohamed; Nunes, Quentin M.; Kennedy, David; Khan, Raja Basit; Khan, Muhammad A.S.; Magee, Conor J.; Jones, Steven M.; Mason, Denise; Parappally, Ciny P.; Mathur, Pawan; Saunders, Michael; Jamel, Sara; Haque, Samer Ul; Zafar, Sara; Shiwani, Muhammad Hanif; Samuel, Nehemiah; Dar, Farooq; Heath, Jonathan; Blazeby, Jane M.; McNair, Angus G.K.; Reed, Joanna; Khan, Shabuddin; Robinson, Steven J.; Dwerryhouse, Simon J.; Higgs, Simon M.; Old, Oliver J.; Frank, Lucinda; Jones, Robert P.; Roberts, Geoffrey P.; Chambers, Adam; Reid, Alistair; Gardner-Thorpe, James; Martin, Jack; Chambers, Adam; Knight, Benjamin; Krysztopik, Richard; Kynaston, James; On Behalf Of The Choles Study Group, West Midlands Research Collaborative.

In: Surgical Endoscopy, Vol. 32, No. 7, 16.01.2018, p. 1-9.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Bharamgoudar, R, Sonsale, A, Hodson, J, Griffiths, E, Vohra, RS, Kirkham, AJ, Pasquali, S, Marriott, P, Johnstone, M, Spreadborough, P, Alderson, D, Griffiths, EA, Fenwick, S, Elmasry, M, Nunes, QM, Kennedy, D, Khan, RB, Khan, MAS, Magee, CJ, Jones, SM, Mason, D, Parappally, CP, Mathur, P, Saunders, M, Jamel, S, Haque, SU, Zafar, S, Shiwani, MH, Samuel, N, Dar, F, Heath, J, Blazeby, JM, McNair, AGK, Reed, J, Khan, S, Robinson, SJ, Dwerryhouse, SJ, Higgs, SM, Old, OJ, Frank, L, Jones, RP, Roberts, GP, Chambers, A, Reid, A, Gardner-Thorpe, J, Martin, J, Chambers, A, Knight, B, Krysztopik, R, Kynaston, J & On Behalf Of The Choles Study Group, West Midlands Research Collaborative 2018, 'The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy', Surgical Endoscopy, vol. 32, no. 7, pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00464-018-6030-6

APA

Bharamgoudar, R., Sonsale, A., Hodson, J., Griffiths, E., Vohra, R. S., Kirkham, A. J., ... On Behalf Of The Choles Study Group, West Midlands Research Collaborative (2018). The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Surgical Endoscopy, 32(7), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00464-018-6030-6

Vancouver

Bharamgoudar R, Sonsale A, Hodson J, Griffiths E, Vohra RS, Kirkham AJ et al. The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Surgical Endoscopy. 2018 Jan 16;32(7):1-9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00464-018-6030-6

Author

Bharamgoudar, Reshma ; Sonsale, Aniket ; Hodson, James ; Griffiths, Ewen ; Vohra, Ravinder S. ; Kirkham, Amanda J. ; Pasquali, Sandro ; Marriott, Paul ; Johnstone, Marianne ; Spreadborough, Philip ; Alderson, Derek ; Griffiths, Ewen A. ; Fenwick, Stephen ; Elmasry, Mohamed ; Nunes, Quentin M. ; Kennedy, David ; Khan, Raja Basit ; Khan, Muhammad A.S. ; Magee, Conor J. ; Jones, Steven M. ; Mason, Denise ; Parappally, Ciny P. ; Mathur, Pawan ; Saunders, Michael ; Jamel, Sara ; Haque, Samer Ul ; Zafar, Sara ; Shiwani, Muhammad Hanif ; Samuel, Nehemiah ; Dar, Farooq ; Heath, Jonathan ; Blazeby, Jane M. ; McNair, Angus G.K. ; Reed, Joanna ; Khan, Shabuddin ; Robinson, Steven J. ; Dwerryhouse, Simon J. ; Higgs, Simon M. ; Old, Oliver J. ; Frank, Lucinda ; Jones, Robert P. ; Roberts, Geoffrey P. ; Chambers, Adam ; Reid, Alistair ; Gardner-Thorpe, James ; Martin, Jack ; Chambers, Adam ; Knight, Benjamin ; Krysztopik, Richard ; Kynaston, James ; On Behalf Of The Choles Study Group, West Midlands Research Collaborative. / The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy. In: Surgical Endoscopy. 2018 ; Vol. 32, No. 7. pp. 1-9.

Bibtex

@article{46da24f31222417b8dab3cd925e035a8,
title = "The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy",
abstract = "Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7{\%} of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p < 0.001), with the proportions of operations lasting > 90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8{\%} in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care.",
keywords = "Laparoscopic cholecystectomy, Operative duration, Patient factors, Prediction, Scoring tool, Theatre utilisation",
author = "Reshma Bharamgoudar and Aniket Sonsale and James Hodson and Ewen Griffiths and Vohra, {Ravinder S.} and Kirkham, {Amanda J.} and Sandro Pasquali and Paul Marriott and Marianne Johnstone and Philip Spreadborough and Derek Alderson and Griffiths, {Ewen A.} and Stephen Fenwick and Mohamed Elmasry and Nunes, {Quentin M.} and David Kennedy and Khan, {Raja Basit} and Khan, {Muhammad A.S.} and Magee, {Conor J.} and Jones, {Steven M.} and Denise Mason and Parappally, {Ciny P.} and Pawan Mathur and Michael Saunders and Sara Jamel and Haque, {Samer Ul} and Sara Zafar and Shiwani, {Muhammad Hanif} and Nehemiah Samuel and Farooq Dar and Jonathan Heath and Blazeby, {Jane M.} and McNair, {Angus G.K.} and Joanna Reed and Shabuddin Khan and Robinson, {Steven J.} and Dwerryhouse, {Simon J.} and Higgs, {Simon M.} and Old, {Oliver J.} and Lucinda Frank and Jones, {Robert P.} and Roberts, {Geoffrey P.} and Adam Chambers and Alistair Reid and James Gardner-Thorpe and Jack Martin and Adam Chambers and Benjamin Knight and Richard Krysztopik and James Kynaston and {On Behalf Of The Choles Study Group, West Midlands Research Collaborative}",
year = "2018",
month = "1",
day = "16",
doi = "10.1007/s00464-018-6030-6",
language = "English",
volume = "32",
pages = "1--9",
journal = "Surgical Endoscopy",
issn = "0930-2794",
publisher = "Springer US",
number = "7",

}

RIS - suitable for import to EndNote

TY - JOUR

T1 - The development and validation of a scoring tool to predict the operative duration of elective laparoscopic cholecystectomy

AU - Bharamgoudar, Reshma

AU - Sonsale, Aniket

AU - Hodson, James

AU - Griffiths, Ewen

AU - Vohra, Ravinder S.

AU - Kirkham, Amanda J.

AU - Pasquali, Sandro

AU - Marriott, Paul

AU - Johnstone, Marianne

AU - Spreadborough, Philip

AU - Alderson, Derek

AU - Griffiths, Ewen A.

AU - Fenwick, Stephen

AU - Elmasry, Mohamed

AU - Nunes, Quentin M.

AU - Kennedy, David

AU - Khan, Raja Basit

AU - Khan, Muhammad A.S.

AU - Magee, Conor J.

AU - Jones, Steven M.

AU - Mason, Denise

AU - Parappally, Ciny P.

AU - Mathur, Pawan

AU - Saunders, Michael

AU - Jamel, Sara

AU - Haque, Samer Ul

AU - Zafar, Sara

AU - Shiwani, Muhammad Hanif

AU - Samuel, Nehemiah

AU - Dar, Farooq

AU - Heath, Jonathan

AU - Blazeby, Jane M.

AU - McNair, Angus G.K.

AU - Reed, Joanna

AU - Khan, Shabuddin

AU - Robinson, Steven J.

AU - Dwerryhouse, Simon J.

AU - Higgs, Simon M.

AU - Old, Oliver J.

AU - Frank, Lucinda

AU - Jones, Robert P.

AU - Roberts, Geoffrey P.

AU - Chambers, Adam

AU - Reid, Alistair

AU - Gardner-Thorpe, James

AU - Martin, Jack

AU - Chambers, Adam

AU - Knight, Benjamin

AU - Krysztopik, Richard

AU - Kynaston, James

AU - On Behalf Of The Choles Study Group, West Midlands Research Collaborative

PY - 2018/1/16

Y1 - 2018/1/16

N2 - Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p < 0.001), with the proportions of operations lasting > 90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care.

AB - Background: The ability to accurately predict operative duration has the potential to optimise theatre efficiency and utilisation, thus reducing costs and increasing staff and patient satisfaction. With laparoscopic cholecystectomy being one of the most commonly performed procedures worldwide, a tool to predict operative duration could be extremely beneficial to healthcare organisations. Methods: Data collected from the CholeS study on patients undergoing cholecystectomy in UK and Irish hospitals between 04/2014 and 05/2014 were used to study operative duration. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was produced in order to identify significant independent predictors of long (> 90 min) operations. The resulting model was converted to a risk score, which was subsequently validated on second cohort of patients using ROC curves. Results: After exclusions, data were available for 7227 patients in the derivation (CholeS) cohort. The median operative duration was 60 min (interquartile range 45–85), with 17.7% of operations lasting longer than 90 min. Ten factors were found to be significant independent predictors of operative durations > 90 min, including ASA, age, previous surgical admissions, BMI, gallbladder wall thickness and CBD diameter. A risk score was then produced from these factors, and applied to a cohort of 2405 patients from a tertiary centre for external validation. This returned an area under the ROC curve of 0.708 (SE = 0.013, p < 0.001), with the proportions of operations lasting > 90 min increasing more than eightfold from 5.1 to 41.8% in the extremes of the score. Conclusion: The scoring tool produced in this study was found to be significantly predictive of long operative durations on validation in an external cohort. As such, the tool may have the potential to enable organisations to better organise theatre lists and deliver greater efficiencies in care.

KW - Laparoscopic cholecystectomy

KW - Operative duration

KW - Patient factors

KW - Prediction

KW - Scoring tool

KW - Theatre utilisation

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85040563007&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/s00464-018-6030-6

DO - 10.1007/s00464-018-6030-6

M3 - Article

VL - 32

SP - 1

EP - 9

JO - Surgical Endoscopy

JF - Surgical Endoscopy

SN - 0930-2794

IS - 7

ER -