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The global magnitude-frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)621-629
Number of pages9
JournalEarth and Planetary Science Letters
Volume482
Early online date29 Nov 2017
DOIs
DateAccepted/In press - 8 Nov 2017
DateE-pub ahead of print - 29 Nov 2017
DatePublished (current) - 15 Jan 2018

Abstract

For volcanoes, as for other natural hazards, the frequency of large events diminishes with their magnitude, as captured by the magnitude–frequency relationship. Assessing this relationship is valuable both for the insights it provides about volcanism, and for the practical challenge of risk management. We derive a global magnitude–frequency relationship for explosive volcanic eruptions of at least 300Mt of erupted mass (or M4.5). Our approach is essentially empirical, based on the eruptions recorded in the LaMEVE database. It differs from previous approaches mainly in our conservative treatment of magnitude-rounding and under-recording. Our estimate for the return period of 'super-eruptions’ (1000Gt, or M8) is 17ka (95% CI: 5.2ka, 48ka), which is substantially shorter than previous estimates, indicating that volcanoes pose a larger risk to human civilisation than previously thought.

    Research areas

  • exceedance probability, extreme event, geohazard, LaMEVE, marked Poisson process, return period

Documents

Documents

  • Full-text PDF (accepted author manuscript)

    Rights statement: This is the author accepted manuscript (AAM). The final published version (version of record) is available online via Elsevier at http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X17306519 . Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher.

    Accepted author manuscript, 418 KB, PDF-document

    Licence: CC BY-NC-ND

DOI

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