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Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios

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Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2245-2270
Number of pages26
JournalNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Volume17
Issue number12
DOIs
DateAccepted/In press - 8 Nov 2017
DatePublished (current) - 12 Dec 2017

Abstract

This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.

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    Rights statement: This is the final published version of the article (version of record). It first appeared online via EGU at https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/2245/2017/. Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher.

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