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Vulnerability of bridges to scour: Insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

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Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1393-1409
Number of pages17
JournalNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Volume17
Issue number8
DOIs
DateAccepted/In press - 5 Jul 2017
DatePublished (current) - 11 Aug 2017

Abstract

Scour (localised erosion) during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.

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    Rights statement: This is the final published version of the article (version of record). It first appeared online via EGU at https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/17/1393/2017/. Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher.

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