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Was the 2016 United States’ presidential contest a deviating election? Continuity and change in the electoral map – or ‘Plus ça change, plus ç’est la mème géographie'

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Was the 2016 United States’ presidential contest a deviating election? Continuity and change in the electoral map – or ‘Plus ça change, plus ç’est la mème géographie'. / Johnston, Ron; Jones, Kelvyn; Manley, David; Pattie, Charles.

In: Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, Vol. 27, No. 4, 10.2017, p. 369-388.

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@article{7600c4daf73a4f09a1b40049039da2b5,
title = "Was the 2016 United States’ presidential contest a deviating election? Continuity and change in the electoral map – or ‘Plus {\cc}a change, plus {\cc}’est la m{\`e}me g{\'e}ographie'",
abstract = "Several commentators before and after the 2016 US presidential election claimed that it involved a ‘redrawing of the country’s electoral map’, which in the context of the Key/Pomper classification of elections suggested that it was a deviating election, and potentially a critical election heralding a realignment. Analysis of the geography of the result of the 2016 contest, however, indicates considerable continuity at the county scale: the main trend was an increase in the spatial polarisation of the US electorate. Trump not only performed best in 2016 in those counties where Republican party candidates had done well at the previous nine elections, he also increased the Republican share of the votes cast in many of them relative to his performance in counties where the Democratic party candidates were strong then. The main deviations from this trend were in counties with large Black and/or Hispanic populations and those with relatively large numbers of well-qualified, well-paid adults. It was not a potential critical election, therefore, but a continuation of a sequence now nearly four decades old.",
author = "Ron Johnston and Kelvyn Jones and David Manley and Charles Pattie",
year = "2017",
month = "10",
doi = "10.1080/17457289.2017.1354004",
language = "English",
volume = "27",
pages = "369--388",
journal = "Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties",
issn = "1745-7289",
publisher = "Taylor & Francis Group",
number = "4",

}

RIS - suitable for import to EndNote

TY - JOUR

T1 - Was the 2016 United States’ presidential contest a deviating election? Continuity and change in the electoral map – or ‘Plus ça change, plus ç’est la mème géographie'

AU - Johnston, Ron

AU - Jones, Kelvyn

AU - Manley, David

AU - Pattie, Charles

PY - 2017/10

Y1 - 2017/10

N2 - Several commentators before and after the 2016 US presidential election claimed that it involved a ‘redrawing of the country’s electoral map’, which in the context of the Key/Pomper classification of elections suggested that it was a deviating election, and potentially a critical election heralding a realignment. Analysis of the geography of the result of the 2016 contest, however, indicates considerable continuity at the county scale: the main trend was an increase in the spatial polarisation of the US electorate. Trump not only performed best in 2016 in those counties where Republican party candidates had done well at the previous nine elections, he also increased the Republican share of the votes cast in many of them relative to his performance in counties where the Democratic party candidates were strong then. The main deviations from this trend were in counties with large Black and/or Hispanic populations and those with relatively large numbers of well-qualified, well-paid adults. It was not a potential critical election, therefore, but a continuation of a sequence now nearly four decades old.

AB - Several commentators before and after the 2016 US presidential election claimed that it involved a ‘redrawing of the country’s electoral map’, which in the context of the Key/Pomper classification of elections suggested that it was a deviating election, and potentially a critical election heralding a realignment. Analysis of the geography of the result of the 2016 contest, however, indicates considerable continuity at the county scale: the main trend was an increase in the spatial polarisation of the US electorate. Trump not only performed best in 2016 in those counties where Republican party candidates had done well at the previous nine elections, he also increased the Republican share of the votes cast in many of them relative to his performance in counties where the Democratic party candidates were strong then. The main deviations from this trend were in counties with large Black and/or Hispanic populations and those with relatively large numbers of well-qualified, well-paid adults. It was not a potential critical election, therefore, but a continuation of a sequence now nearly four decades old.

U2 - 10.1080/17457289.2017.1354004

DO - 10.1080/17457289.2017.1354004

M3 - Article

VL - 27

SP - 369

EP - 388

JO - Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties

JF - Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties

SN - 1745-7289

IS - 4

ER -