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What has Global Sensitivity Analysis ever done for us? A systematic review to support scientific advancement and to inform policy-making in earth system modelling

Research output: Contribution to journalReview article

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-18
Number of pages18
JournalEarth-Science Reviews
Volume194
Early online date16 Apr 2019
DOIs
DateAccepted/In press - 8 Apr 2019
DateE-pub ahead of print - 16 Apr 2019
DatePublished (current) - 1 Jul 2019

Abstract

Computer models are essential tools in the earth system sciences. They underpin our search for understanding of earth system functioning and support decision- and policy-making across spatial and temporal scales. To understand the implications of uncertainty and environmental variability on the identification of such earth system models and their predictions, we can rely on increasingly powerful Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA)methods. Previous reviews have characterised the variability of GSA methods available and their usability for different tasks. In our paper we rather focus on reviewing what has been learned so far by applying GSA to models across the earth system sciences, independently of the specific algorithm that was applied. We identify and discuss 10 key findings with general applicability and relevance for the earth sciences. We further provide an A-B-C-D of best practise in applying GSA methods, which we have derived from analysing why some GSA applications provided more insight than others.

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    Rights statement: This is the accepted author manuscript (AAM). The final published version (version of record) is available online via Elsevier at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.04.006 . Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher.

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    Embargo ends: 16/04/20

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    Licence: CC BY-NC-ND

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